PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:New York Yankees back in ALCS – and look like they're just getting started

Gerrit Cole’s face scrunched up as if he’d just choked down a cocktail of dread and PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerdisgust as Kyle Isbel’s fly ball drifted toward the right field wall in Kauffman Stadium. The New York Yankees were just seven outs away from putting away the Kansas City Royals – “pesky,” as many bigger-city dwellers might damningly call them – but now Isbel’s drive was fixing to ruin their night.

And within just a few slo-mo frames, Cole’s reaction likely distilled what so many Yankee fans have been feeling for the last week, or few months, or maybe the better part of this century.

The 3-1 game would not become 3-3. The ball would die at the fence in Juan Soto’s glove – shout out real ballparks with normal right field dimensions – and Cole would escape with a seven-inning, closeout gem.

And so he emoted, a scream of triumph and relief that betrayed the impish detachment he carried for much of his two starts in this American League Division Series. Oh, the 155 pitches he delivered in his two starts came with great conviction, and the Yankees won both of those games. Yet Cole never looked totally comfortable, not with every game a close-and-late affair, not with Kansas City flush with excellent contact hitters who make playoff baseball a daunting challenge for their rivals.

Well, Cole can exhale – and Yankee fans ought to, as well. Their team has survived a harrowing and crucial test, and now they find themselves in exquisite position.

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The Yankees suppressed the Royals in Game 4 on Thursday night, winning both game and ALDS by a 3-1 count, and they are back in the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2022.

They’ll try to win an ALCS game for the first time since 2019 – Houston swept them in ’22 – and a pennant and World Series for the first time since 2009, and goodness, doesn’t every corner of the organization have that burned in their memory.

Yet if the last 15 years of postseason failure, and the last few years and even couple weeks of playoff baseball has taught them, it’s that there’s only so many controllables. You can only “want it” so much in October, when matchups and hot hands and health are so paramount, payrolls and pinstripes be damned.

But as they emerge from this division round, the Yankees find themselves in an unlikely spot: In fantastic shape.

They will stage Game 1 of the ALCS on Monday night at Yankee Stadium, with only the opponent to be determined. The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are staging a beautiful exhibition of baseball in that other ALDS, with taut, extremely well-pitched games.

But Cleveland’s Game 4 victory Thursday forced a winner-take-all finale, ensuring Detroit will burn its ace, the baddest man left standing in the playoffs, lefty Tarik Skubal, to try and advance.

Skubal won’t start any earlier than a Game 3 in the ALCS; New York’s victory Thursday night ensures Cole can be ready for Game 2, and that Clarke Schmidt can take the ball in Game 1, against whatever leftovers the Guardians and Tigers can summon after knocking each other silly.

But that series is starting to look a lot more like a pair of offensively-challenged teams lacking deep frontline pitching to last in a best-of-seven series. A lot like their AL Central brethren, the Royals, who battled fantastically but were probably a few bats short of going toe-to-toe with the game’s greatest.

Suddenly, just a couple nights after their season was in peril, the Yankees absolutely fit that description.

They can pitch: Cole, who picked up steam in his last two regular season starts after an elbow injury delayed and then dogged his ’24 season, covered seven innings in Game 4, walking nobody and giving up just six hits, five of them singles and handed it off to a bullpen that tossed 15⅔ innings without giving up an earned run in the series.

They are undaunted: Luke Weaver, anointed the closer less than a month ago after All-Star Clay Holmes’ second-half unraveling, saved all three victories in the ALDS, notching a five-out save, two four-out saves and retiring 14 of the 16 batters he faced. It was little surprise that behemoths Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton engulfed the 183-pound Weaver on the mound in the on-field celebration, paying their respects.

“These guys are dogs, man,” Cole said in a clubhouse TV interview of Weaver and Holmes, the latter settling deftly into a set-up role as he took down the eighth inning of Game 4. “They want the ball and want it in big spots. They’ve faced adversity and come back from it. It’s made them stronger, made them better and we have all the confidence in ‘em.”

And they are hitting just enough: Stanton had six hits in 15 at-bats, including two doubles and a homer, and Judge drew five walks in four games, checking in with a Game 4 double as the Royals – “They’re a damn good ballclub,” says Cole – steadfastly refused to let the presumed MVP beat them.

But the Yankees found a way, more than can be said for the 95-win Philadelphia Phillies, who are already home, or the seven-time ALCS qualifying Houston Astros, who couldn’t even make it this far. The last of this era’s blue bloods, the Los Angeles Dodgers, still must fight for their lives in Friday’s NLDS Game 5.

Other people’s problems.

“Now,” says manager Aaron Boone, “we'll be down to the final four. Everyone is feeling pretty good about their teams. That's the case for me.”

And why not? The Yankees are going home, ready to enjoy a three-day weekend, and primed to attack what’s next.

Big exhale. Bigger opportunity ahead.

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